Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $151,466$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(1.92 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{144,789.7}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 52.2)}}\) (asimptote \(144,789.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7,797$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(1.3 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,361.4}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 44.5)}}\) (asimptote \(7,361.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,821$ on 2020-05-31

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $163,942$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(3.08 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{156,150.1}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 32.1)}}\) (asimptote \(156,150.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,540$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(812 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,403.9}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 32.3)}}\) (asimptote \(4,403.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $31,429$ on 2020-05-31

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $27,043$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(98.6 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,243.0}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 88.6)}}\) (asimptote \(39,243.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $212$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(5.82 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{295.0}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 49.7)}}\) (asimptote \(295.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $15,445$ on 2020-05-31

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $17,071$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(3.53 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,601.7}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 37.3)}}\) (asimptote \(16,601.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $285$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(66.1 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{276.6}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 27.7)}}\) (asimptote \(276.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,974$ on 2020-05-31

United Arab Emirates⮸

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $34,557$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(649 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,491.1}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 83.5)}}\) (asimptote \(44,491.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $264$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(19.1 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{269.8}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 45.5)}}\) (asimptote \(269.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,361$ on 2020-05-31

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $85,261$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(1.99 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{112,893.7}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 67.4)}}\) (asimptote \(112,893.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $503$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(40.3 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{764.5}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 56.7)}}\) (asimptote \(764.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,316$ on 2020-05-31

Cyprus⮸

Population $1,207,359$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $944$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(253 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{910.6}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 29.0)}}\) (asimptote \(910.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $17$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(7.41 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17.0}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 15.4)}}\) (asimptote \(17.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $137$ on 2020-05-31

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $56,910$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(567 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{90,411.5}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 85.6)}}\) (asimptote \(90,411.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $38$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(2.53 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.6\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $26,582$ on 2020-05-31

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Taiwan* recovered 96%
Japan recovered 87%
Israel recovered 80%
Turkey recovered 61%
Georgia recovered 55%
Singapore recovered 37%
Saudi Arabia recovered 22%

Taiwan*⮸

Population $23,816,775$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $442$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(128 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{435.9}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 34.9)}}\) (asimptote \(435.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7$ on 2020-05-31

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12$ on 2020-05-31

Japan⮸

Population $126,476,461$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,751$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(1.89 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,610.9}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 53.2)}}\) (asimptote \(16,610.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $898$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(64.9 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{953.2}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 53.2)}}\) (asimptote \(953.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,511$ on 2020-05-31

Georgia⮸

Population $3,989,167$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $783$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(98.8 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{762.7}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 46.6)}}\) (asimptote \(762.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(3.25 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13.3}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 24.8)}}\) (asimptote \(13.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $166$ on 2020-05-31

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $34,884$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(363 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,041.4}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 96.5)}}\) (asimptote \(35,041.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $23$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(4.99 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(28.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24.9}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 33.4)}}\) (asimptote \(24.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13,162$ on 2020-05-31